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Analysis · FIFA World Cup 2026

June 29, 2026

'5 World Cup breakout starts that could move millions this summer.'

'5 World Cup breakout starts that could move millions this summer.'

'5 World Cup breakout starts that could move millions this summer.'

'5 World Cup breakout starts that could move millions this summer.'

Five footballers have raised their international profile and, according to SoccerSolver’s model, still have room for market revaluation this summer. Every World Cup produces names of its own: players who go from being known by analysts to becoming targets for half of Europe within weeks.

Five footballers have raised their international profile and, according to SoccerSolver’s model, still have room for market revaluation this summer. Every World Cup produces names of its own: players who go from being known by analysts to becoming targets for half of Europe within weeks.

At SoccerSolver we work with three references for each player: the current market value, our model's prediction at one, two and three years, and the fair price, the "fair" value obtained by extrapolating the trend of recent valuations and damping it for age. The most interesting insight appears when those three figures diverge.

At SoccerSolver we work with three references for each player: the current market value, our model's prediction at one, two and three years, and the fair price, the "fair" value obtained by extrapolating the trend of recent valuations and damping it for age. The most interesting insight appears when those three figures diverge.

¿What is Fair Price?

¿What is Fair Price?

The player's maximum potential value under optimal conditions, regardless of his current club or league. This serves as a maximum reference point.

The player's maximum potential value under optimal conditions, regardless of his current club or league. This serves as a maximum reference point.

The group stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026 has been no exception.

The group stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026 has been no exception.

As their performances increase their international exposure, at SoccerSolver we analyzed what our model says about their market value and revaluation potential. The conclusion? All five players analyzed have a fair price above their current valuation, which means there is still room for the market to adjust their price this summer.

As their performances increase their international exposure, at SoccerSolver we analyzed what our model says about their market value and revaluation potential. The conclusion? All five players analyzed have a fair price above their current valuation, which means there is still room for the market to adjust their price this summer.

Johan Manzambi (SC Freiburg)

Johan Manzambi (SC Freiburg)

Age: 20

Current value: €50M

1-year fair price: €138.2M

At just 20 years old, the Swiss midfielder has been one of the major breakout players of the tournament. His current value is €50 million, but our model estimates a fair price of €138.2 million within one year.

At just 20 years old, the Swiss midfielder has been one of the major breakout players of the tournament. His current value is €50 million, but our model estimates a fair price of €138.2 million within one year.

Market evolution: from €150,000 in 2023 to €35M before the World Cup.

Fair Price: 1 year €138.2M

Key metrics: historical CAGR 1,679% · cumulative return 13,900% · return over the last 6 months 337.5% · historical Sharpe 2.44 · 0 recorded injuries across his entire professional career.

Model reading: the World Cup could accelerate a revaluation that had already been building for months.

Yasin Ayari (Brighton)

Yasin Ayari (Brighton)

Current value: €35M

1-year fair price: €46.2M

3-year fair price: €66.9M

Ayari is confirming at the World Cup the growth he had already shown during the season with Brighton. He is currently valued at €35 million, although the model places his fair price at €46.2 million within one year and close to €67 million over three seasons.

Ayari is confirming at the World Cup the growth he had already shown during the season with Brighton. He is currently valued at €35 million, although the model places his fair price at €46.2 million within one year and close to €67 million over three seasons.

Track record: steady recovery after several loan spells, eventually establishing himself in the Premier League.

Fair Price: 1 year €46.2M · 3 years €66.9M

Key metrics: historical CAGR 102% · total return 650% · 1-year Sharpe 1.30 · historical Sortino 4.45 · return over the last six months 36.4%.

Model reading: his recent trajectory strengthens the case for a progressive market adjustment if he maintains this competitive level.

Martin Baturina (Como 1907)

Martin Baturina (Como 1907)

Current value: €30M

1-year fair price: €66.2M

3-year fair price: €126.5M

The Croatian attacking midfielder was already one of Europe’s most closely watched talents, but his World Cup is reinforcing that perception even further. His current value stands at €30 million, while SoccerSolver calculates a fair price of €66.2 million within one year and €126.5 million over three years.

The Croatian attacking midfielder was already one of Europe’s most closely watched talents, but his World Cup is reinforcing that perception even further. His current value stands at €30 million, while SoccerSolver calculates a fair price of €66.2 million within one year and €126.5 million over three years.

Model prediction: €33.6M in 1 year.

Fair Price: 1 year €66.2M · 3 years €126.5M

Key metrics: historical drawdown 18.2% · annual volatility 35.3% · stability index 1.66.

Model reading: his recent move to Como could prove short-lived if he maintains this level throughout the tournament.

Maxi Araújo (Sporting CP)

Current value: €35M

1-year fair price: €63.5M

1-year Sharpe: 3.84

Few full-backs are generating as much attacking impact at the World Cup as the Uruguayan international. His market value is currently €35 million, although the model projects a fair price of €63.5 million in the short term.

Few full-backs are generating as much attacking impact at the World Cup as the Uruguayan international. His market value is currently €35 million, although the model projects a fair price of €63.5 million in the short term.

Profile: high growth with standout stability.

Fair Price: 1 year €63.5M

Key metrics: 1-year Sharpe Ratio 3.84 · historical Sharpe 3.47 · historical CAGR 116.6% · return over the last six months 47.1% · historical drawdown 0%.

Model reading: his combination of growth and stability makes him one of the strongest profiles in the study.

Crysencio Summerville (West Ham)

Current value: €35M

1-year fair price: €57.8M

3-year fair price: €82.6M

The Dutch winger is once again showing on a major tournament stage why he keeps appearing on the shortlists of numerous clubs. He is currently valued at €35 million, although the model estimates a fair price of €57.8 million over the next year.

The Dutch winger is once again showing on a major tournament stage why he keeps appearing on the shortlists of numerous clubs. He is currently valued at €35 million, although the model estimates a fair price of €57.8 million over the next year.

Model: slight future stabilization in his market value.

Fair Price: 1 year €57.8M · 3 years €82.6M

Key metrics: return over the last six months 36.4% · 1-year Sharpe 1.11 · stability index 2.64.

Model reading: although the predictions point to stabilization, his fair price remains well above his current price.

Conclusions

Conclusions

The FIFA World Cup 2026 once again shows that major international competitions accelerate the perceived value of certain footballers. According to SoccerSolver’s model, these five players have room to keep increasing their valuation during the next transfer window. Among them, Johan Manzambi stands out for the highest revaluation potential and historical growth, Maxi Araújo for the best risk-adjusted return, and Martin Baturina for the strongest long-term projection. As the World Cup continues, the market is starting to take note. And as tends to happen every four years, some of the summer’s biggest deals could begin right here.

The FIFA World Cup 2026 once again shows that major international competitions accelerate the perceived value of certain footballers. According to SoccerSolver’s model, these five players have room to keep increasing their valuation during the next transfer window. Among them, Johan Manzambi stands out for the highest revaluation potential and historical growth, Maxi Araújo for the best risk-adjusted return, and Martin Baturina for the strongest long-term projection. As the World Cup continues, the market is starting to take note. And as tends to happen every four years, some of the summer’s biggest deals could begin right here.